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中国的老龄化问题由于出生率与结婚率双双下落愈演愈烈

2018-7-18 12:37| 发布者: 91xlbadm| 查看: 97545| 评论: 3|原作者: 91xlbadm

摘要: China’s ageingpopulation problem worsens as birth and marriage rates fall 中国的老龄化问题由于出生率与结婚率双双下落愈演愈烈 Demographer puts lower birth rate downto a drop in the number of women a ...
China’s ageingpopulation problem worsens as birth and marriage rates fall


中国的老龄化问题由于出生率与结婚率双双下落愈演愈烈


Demographer puts lower birth rate downto a drop in the number of women at childbearing age


人口统计学家将出生率降低归结于育龄女性数量的降低。


老人带孩子

China’s ageing society problem appears to beworsening, with the latest official statistics revealing that both its birthand marriage rates have dropped significantly.


中国的社会老龄化问题愈演愈烈,根据最新的官方统计显示,出生率与结婚率均严重下滑。


Thecountry is facing huge challenges with its new births in decline and a quarterof the population expected to be aged over 60 by 2030, according to a cabinetplan.


中国正面临着巨大挑战,其新生儿数量显著下降,到了2030年,预计将有1/4的人年龄超过60岁


Its rapidly ageing population pushed Beijing to end thenotorious one-child policy – introduced in 1979 to control population growth –in 2016, and couples can now have two children.


人口迅速老龄化迫使中国结束了独生子女政策。这一政策从1979年开始执行,旨在控制人口增长,到了2016年,一对夫妇可以生育2个孩子


But despite the new policy, some 17.58 million babies were bornin mainland China last year, compared to the 241 million people aged over 60,Xinhua reported on Sunday, citing the latest National Health Commissionfigures.


新华社援引国家卫生委员会的最新数据称,尽管实施了新的政策,去年中国大陆有1758万婴儿降生,但年龄超过60岁的人达到2.41亿。


The birth rate fell to 12.43 births perthousand people last year – down from a record high of 12.95 in 2016. Fifty-oneper cent of those newborns were not the first child in their families, thereport said.


据报道,去年的出生率降至12.43‰人,低于2016年创纪录的12.95‰人,且这些新生儿中有51%不是家中的第一个孩子。


中国人口

DemographerChen Youhua from Nanjing University said the lower birth rate was mainly to dowith a drop in the number of women at childbearing age – a population structureresulting from the low birth rate in the 1990s.


南京大学人口统计学家Chen Youhua表示,出生率降低主要是因为育龄妇女数量下降。20世纪90年代开始的低出生率,导致了现今的人口结构。


He said other factors such as delaying marriage and a reluctanceto have children also played a role, but would have a limited impact for now,though more obvious change would be seen in a decade.


其还称,其他因素诸如晚婚与不愿生娃也有一定影响,但是现在影响比较有限。不过十年内会有更明显的变化。


中国老龄化


There have been calls for Beijing to allowcouples to have as many children as they want, a move Chen said would respectbasic human rights but would not encourage people to have bigger families.


有人呼吁政府应允许夫妇想生多少就生多少,CHEN表示尊重生育意愿,但不会鼓励人们拥有更大的家庭。


He also doubted whetherproposed tax incentives to boost the birth rate would work either.


他也对有些人提议的、提高出生率的税收激励措施是否有效持怀疑态度。


“TheChinese focus on education means the costs involved in helping parents to raisemore children would be too much for the state, and for society. These sort ofmeasures are more about showing the government’s attitude towards encouragingpeople to have children – they won’t help much to improve the populationstructure,” Chen said.


CHEN还表示:“中国人重教育,这意味着帮助家长养育更多孩子的花费,对国家、社会来说都太过沉重。这些措施更多的是表明政府鼓励人们生孩子的态度,而这些措施对改善人口结构无济于事”


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Meanwhile, across thecountry, 3 million couples registered their marriages with the Ministry ofCivil Affairs in the first quarter, down from nearly 4.3 million in the sameperiod of 2013 – a substantial decline of 30 per cent.


与此同时,全国第一季度有300万对夫妇在民政部门登记结婚,数量低于2013年同期的430万,大幅下降了30%。


Thedeclining marriage rate was most acute in Ningxia, one of China’s poorestregions, last year, where it fell by almost 13 per cent from 2016. Shanghai sawthe second biggest drop, at 12 per cent.


宁夏--中国最贫困的地区之一,其结婚率下降最为严重,去年相比于2016年下降了13%。上海排名第二,下降了12%


中国人口形势

Measures that have beenfloated to address the low birth rate include introducing a child allowance aspart of the country’s tax reforms.


为了解决低出生率,政府采取的措施包括将儿童津贴作为国家税收改革的一部分。


Beijinghas proposed raising the minimum threshold for personal income tax from 3,500yuan (US$520) per month to 5,000 yuan (US$750) to boost domestic consumption,and many demographers say a child allowance should also be introduced.


政府提议将缴纳个税的最低门槛从每月3500元(520美元)提高到5000元(750美元),以提刺激国内消费,而许多人口统计学家表示还应当引入子女津贴。


“Irecently suggested to the National People’s Congress that as part of ournationwide tax reform, parents should be eligible for a tax reduction of 1,000yuan for every child,” said Huang Kuangshi, a researcher at the ChinaPopulation and Development Research Centre, during a question-and-answersession on Thepaper.cn.


中国人口与发展研究中心研究员黄匡时在澎湃新闻的问答环节中表示道:“我最近向全国人大建议,作为全国税制改革的一部分,父母应当有资格为每一个孩子减税1000元。


China’s ageing problemis particularly severe in the traditional heavy industrial areas in thenortheast – Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces – according to earlierstatistics bureau data.


据早先的统计局数据显示,在中国东北传统重工业区--黑吉辽三省,人口老龄化问题尤为严重,


In Liaoning, more than20 per cent of the population was aged over 60 last year, and the localgovernment last week introduced a long-term plan to encourage young couples tohave a second child and older workers to put off retirement or start their ownbusiness.


在辽宁,去年有超过20%的人口年龄超过60岁,当地政府上周推出了一项长期计划,鼓励年轻夫妇生育第二个孩子,并鼓励年长的工人延迟退休或自己创业。


Huangalso suggested the birth rate could be boosted by bringing in three years ofmaternity leave for all new mothers, which he said would also help withchildren’s early education.


黄匡时还表示,可通过允许所有新晋妈妈休3年产假来提高出生率,他说这也有助于儿童的早期教育。


“Ibelieve maternity leave and other related benefits are the most pressingproblems around this issue that [the authorities] need to address,” he said.


黄匡时同时也表示:“我相信产假和其他相关福利,是围绕这件事情的最紧迫的问题,政府需要解决才行”


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引用  kwak    2018-8-3 19:01
八零后九零后老了怎么办?没有足够数量的下一代,谁支付养老金?谁支撑经济?
引用  yuanss9    2018-8-4 21:26
kwak 发表于 2018-8-3 19:01
八零后九零后老了怎么办?没有足够数量的下一代,谁支付养老金?谁支撑经济? ...

如果只是却养老金,还不算太惨,毕竟以前穷的时候也过来了。
怕就怕到时候拖累经济,国力衰退,到时候的动荡导致人活的不如狗。
引用  lifang0412    2019-3-3 22:16
yuanss9 发表于 2018-8-4 21:26
如果只是却养老金,还不算太惨,毕竟以前穷的时候也过来了。
怕就怕到时候拖累经济,国力衰退,到时候的 ...

出来混迟早是要还的。以前计划生育搞的那么严厉,现在仅仅是开放二胎,已经晚了。

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